Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f21…805e other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,972 (-16%) realized −$1,817 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$234
14 days−$2,776
30 days−$1,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,791
sports 30% −$1,241
politics 11% −$5
world 8% +$982
economics 2% −$82
crypto 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.8% -14.8% 29% 29% -28.4%
≤30d 37 +5.3% -4.7% 35% 35% -16.5%
≤90d 39 +2.7% -7.1% 36% 33% -16.5%
all 45 -7.2% -16.1% 33% 31% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 31% -17.2%
10% -24.1% 24% -25.1%
15% -31.4% 20% -32.3%
20% -38.1% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$167 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$1,817
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage208d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $250 $226 −$24 (-10%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $275 $144 −$131 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $434 −$161 -37%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$373 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$32 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $233 −$228 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$50 -49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$58 +57%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$435 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $87 +$12 +13%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $152 −$65 -43%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $118 −$115 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,225 −$1,119 -91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,156 −$1,134 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,219 −$47 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,016 +$285 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,017 −$906 -89%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $205 −$23 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $447 −$12 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $499 +$552 +111%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $303 −$213 -70%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $855 +$339 +40%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $338 +$366 +108%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 03 $150 +$168 +112%
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 02 $175 −$169 -96%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 02 $54 −$52 -96%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Choi Min-ho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? May 29 $132 −$129 -98%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e May 29 $274 +$381 +139%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 28 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 27 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? May 23 $12 −$9 -69%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial May 23 $66 +$59 +89%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 05 $5 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 08 $72 +$10 +14%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $189 −$82 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $66 14m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 14m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $273 14m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 53m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 53m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $353 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $135 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 13h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 13h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $52 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $159 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $533 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.87 · official $369.87 (match) · 227 history records