Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f21…43bb crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 40% -15.9%
≤30d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 40% -15.9%
≤90d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 40% -15.9%
all 10 -1.5% -10.9% 80% 40% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 40% -15.9%
10% -19.4% 30% -24.0%
15% -27.2% 30% -31.3%
20% -34.4% 10% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$20 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 74¢ 82¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.11 · official $22.03 · 23 history records