Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5f1f…4b47 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 399d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-39%) realized −$144 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$55
world 16% −$63
tech 10% −$40
politics 9% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 11 -66.4% -69.6% 27% 9% -78.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.6% 9% -78.9%
10% -72.5% 9% -81.0%
15% -75.1% 9% -82.8%
20% -77.6% 9% -84.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage399d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? Feb 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? Feb 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Feb 02 $20 +$13 +64%
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025? Aug 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 19 $43 −$43 -100%
India-Pakistan declare war before June? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.12 · official $191.12 (match) · 42 history records