Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f1b…a1b2
sports · 40 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$3,991 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,990 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$145
Realized−$3,990
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage72d
Avg bet$907
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$78
14 days−$59
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 68¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 58¢ $749 $0 −$749 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage G2 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $740 +$266 +36%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $343 −$343 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $1,946 +$24 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $554 +$743 +134%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $758 −$749 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $1,976 +$18 +1%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $770 +$230 +30%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $880 −$10 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $750 $0 +0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $790 −$5 -1%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $912 +$12 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $448 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $1,080 +$116 +11%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $1,316 +$191 +14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 03 $2,078 +$22 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $1,190 +$10 +1%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 28 $1,435 $0 -0%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $1,460 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,260 −$20 -2%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $800 −$800 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $999 +$84 +8%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $999 −$999 -100%
LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifie Apr 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $988 +$96 +10%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $615 +$149 +24%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $402 +$34 +8%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $1,311 +$190 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $1,502 +$144 +10%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 14 $1,122 −$1,122 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $629 +$57 +9%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 13 $1,035 +$191 +18%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $943 +$58 +6%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $952 +$189 +20%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $650 −$325 -50%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $182 −$137 -75%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $182 −$180 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $339 −$339 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$3,552
other 19% −$466
world 9% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $147 2h
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $740 3d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $343 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,872 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 10d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $758 13d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 42¢ $554 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $205 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $180 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $515 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $303 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $108 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $53 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $377 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,994 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1,636 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $335 25d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 77¢ $770 29d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 87¢ $870 30d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 88¢ $880 30d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea SELL Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $750 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% -16.0%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 39 -22.3% -29.7% 51% 23% -19.6%
all 39 -22.3% -29.7% 51% 23% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 23% -19.6%
10% -36.4% 10% -27.3%
15% -42.5% 5% -34.4%
20% -48.2% 3% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.94 · official $144.94 (match) · 285 history records