Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f1a…1fef other 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%22W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$5
sports 24% −$5
politics 20% −$3
culture 8% −$3
crypto 8% +$2
economics 8% −$1
world 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 196 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses22 / 174
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage172d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $23 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $29 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $392 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 24 $73 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $118 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 17 $71 $0 +1%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $376 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 15 $69 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $27 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $22 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $5 7d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 19d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 19d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 31d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 31d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $25 39d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $25 40d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $28 91d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $28 91d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $36 91d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $37 91d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $33 91d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 97¢ $33 91d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $24 91d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $24 92d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $28 92d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $28 92d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 92d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 92d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $27 92d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $27 92d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $24 92d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $25 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? SELL No 98¢ $27 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $27 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.63 · official $33.63 (match) · 782 history records