Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f12…a928 crypto 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$276 (+0%) realized +$274 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%214W / 6L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$614per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$27
14 days+$48
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$342
tech 6% +$3
world 1% −$13
economics 1% +$22
other 0% −$89
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 24 -3.9% -13.1% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 69 -1.3% -10.7% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 220 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,185) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$1,253
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses214 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage547d
Avg bet$614
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,251 $1,253 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,244 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,240 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,238 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,232 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,226 +$6 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,224 +$2 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,221 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,219 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,218 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,211 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,210 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,207 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,203 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,200 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,197 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,194 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,190 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $1,189 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $1,185 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $1,180 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $1,050 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $1,176 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $1,174 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 14 $1,171 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $1,170 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $1,169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $1,168 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,167 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $1,166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,165 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $1,164 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $1,160 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,162 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $1,157 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $1,156 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $1,153 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $1,152 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1,149 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $1,148 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $1,145 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $1,145 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $1,144 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $1,141 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $1,140 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $1,138 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $1,137 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,251 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,240 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,238 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,232 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1,226 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $1,224 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,221 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,219 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,210 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,207 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,203 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,200 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,197 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,190 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,189 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,185 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,180 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,180 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,176 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,171 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,170 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,252.93 · official $1,252.93 (match) · 538 history records