Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5F 0x5f11…e6bb other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$602 (-7%) realized −$602 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate74%14W / 5L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$451per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$234

7 days+$234

14 days+$234

30 days+$234

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-11.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+2.2%	-7.5%	70%	40%	-1.7%
≤30d	10	+2.2%	-7.5%	70%	40%	-1.7%
≤90d	10	+2.2%	-7.5%	70%	40%	-1.7%
all	19	-2.0%	-11.4%	74%	21%	-12.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.4%	21%	-12.3%
10%	-19.8%	11%	-20.7%
15%	-27.6%	11%	-28.3%
20%	-34.7%	11%	-35.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

64% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$641) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -7% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$206 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.75 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$602

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)74%

Wins / losses14 / 5

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage597d

Avg bet$451

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$701	+$23	+3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$321	+$48	+15%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$361	+$26	+7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$352	+$31	+9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$350	+$303	+87%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$63	−$2	-3%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$34	+$29	+86%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$11	−$11	-97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$261	−$249	-96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$258	+$37	+14%
Heat vs. Pacers	Nov 18	$754	−$754	-100%
Colts vs. Jets	Nov 17	$706	+$48	+7%
Lakers vs. Pelicans	Nov 17	$641	+$65	+10%
Timberwolves vs. Kings	Nov 16	$622	+$20	+3%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?	Nov 15	$594	+$27	+5%
Heat vs. Nuggets	Nov 09	$610	−$16	-3%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 1-8?	Nov 08	$588	+$22	+4%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?	Nov 07	$566	+$22	+4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$777	+$73	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$723	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	97¢	$701	1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	SELL No	100¢	$387	4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	87¢	$321	6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	93¢	$361	7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	SELL No	96¢	$383	8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	88¢	$352	9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	55¢	$289	28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	44¢	$61	29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$61	29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$63	29h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	93¢	$62	30h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	12¢	$11	30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	4¢	$12	30h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	52¢	$3	30h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	49¢	$30	30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	85¢	$261	32h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$295	35h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	87¢	$258	39h
Heat vs. Pacers	BUY Heat	20¢	$754	584d
Colts vs. Jets	SELL Colts	99¢	$754	584d
Colts vs. Jets	BUY Colts	93¢	$706	584d
Lakers vs. Pelicans	SELL Lakers	99¢	$706	585d
Lakers vs. Pelicans	BUY Lakers	90¢	$641	585d
Timberwolves vs. Kings	SELL Timberwolves	98¢	$641	585d
Timberwolves vs. Kings	BUY Timberwolves	95¢	$622	585d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?	SELL Yes	90¢	$480	586d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?	SELL Yes	90¢	$16	586d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?	SELL Yes	90¢	$29	586d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15?	SELL Yes	90¢	$97	586d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records