Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f10…9d99 crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$195 (+2%) realized +$196 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate74%39W / 14L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$145
other 18% −$67
economics 11% −$1
finance 10% +$3
sports 6% +$427
weather 5% −$55
tech 4% $0
politics 1% −$3
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.0% -14.9% 0% 0% -17.1%
≤30d 10 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 10% -14.1%
≤90d 40 +0.8% -8.8% 72% 22% -13.7%
all 53 +2.7% -7.1% 74% 26% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 26% -8.2%
10% -16.0% 17% -16.9%
15% -24.1% 9% -25.0%
20% -31.5% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized+$196
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses39 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)53 / 72
History coverage112d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $700 $700 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? Jun 30 $295 −$16 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? Jun 30 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 30? Jun 30 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30? Jun 29 $153 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30? Jun 29 $172 −$36 -21%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 12 $3,003 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $450 −$155 -34%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +62%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $130 −$12 -9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Tunis: Skander Mansouri vs Federico Agustin Gomez May 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $51 −$49 -96%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $1,015 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +2%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +32%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +8%
T20 BIFA Cup, Women: Thunder Xi vs Kokrajhar Apr 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 26 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Play Apr 26 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $500 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 08 $5 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $1,196 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "Rubio" or "Vance" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $71 −$3 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $1,300 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $1,400 −$1 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 20 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 38m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $235 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 58m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $190 58m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 48¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 30? SELL No 63¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 30? BUY No 63¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30? SELL No 54¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30? BUY No 54¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30? SELL No 55¢ $147 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30? BUY No 55¢ $150 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.18 · official $860.18 (match) · 260 history records