Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5f0e…7397 sports 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35,626 (-9%) realized −$35,695 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%187W / 189L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,090per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$3,801est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,446
7 days−$11,079
14 days−$11,666
30 days+$976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$44,086
other 19% +$7,131
crypto 0% −$632
tech 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -23.1% -30.4% 42% 39% -21.9%
≤30d 202 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 47% -8.9%
≤90d 376 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 46% -19.6%
all 376 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 46% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 46% -19.6%
10% -24.2% 40% -27.3%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 33% -34.3%
20% -38.3% 26% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$961) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$779 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$2,531
Realized−$35,695
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses187 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,801
Open positions6
Markets (closed)376 / 370
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$1,090
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,034 $1,071 +$37 (+4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $639 $635 −$4 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $329 $345 +$16 (+5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $283 $295 +$12 (+4%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 85¢ 91¢ $85 $91 +$6 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder Jun 17 $808 −$808 -100%
Clippers vs. Bucks Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $5,402 −$5,402 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 17 $995 −$995 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $275 +$62 +23%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,308 +$221 +10%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,280 −$1,115 -87%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $578 −$127 -22%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $207 −$202 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $862 −$569 -66%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $99 −$16 -17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $177 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $936 +$205 +22%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $816 −$806 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $809 +$1,703 +210%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,299 −$1,295 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $961 +$968 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,585 −$1,489 -94%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $217 −$212 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6,073 +$3,903 +64%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,792 −$4,541 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,610 −$1,074 -23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9,750 −$7,137 -73%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $632 −$632 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,776 +$825 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $526 +$219 +42%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14,897 +$6,206 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7,900 +$1,824 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $54 −$30 -55%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $33 +$34 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$7 +61%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 12 $61 +$39 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$64 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $34 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $45 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $7 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $63 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $2,236 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $82 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $89 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $30 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $39 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $67 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $107 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $61 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $11 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $300 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $15 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 23¢ $151 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $128 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $4 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $165 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,531.22 · official $2,530.37 (match) · 3500 history records