Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f0c…36dd politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
politics 27% +$2
other 15% +$2
crypto 9% $0
sports 6% +$1
culture 4% $0
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 40 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -9.0%
10% -21.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -29.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $7 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $16 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 15 $21 $0 +2%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $17 $0 -1%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $17 $0 +1%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $31 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 10¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $47 9d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $0 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.52 · official $37.31 (match) · 112 history records