Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f0b…2305
world · 529 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,869 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,884 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$424
Realized+$1,884
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses260 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions45
Markets (closed)484 / 529
History coverage300d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 45 History 484 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $257 $260 +$3 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 46¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing? No 62¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by December 31? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 21, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 23, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 22, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? No 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 24, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+113%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $24 −$3 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $63 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$3 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $170 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $209 +$11 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +19%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $3 $0 -18%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $2 $0 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 -7%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$1,674
world 18% +$69
other 3% +$159
crypto 2% −$12
politics 2% −$13
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$6
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 90¢ $4 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $4 41m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 95¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $4 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 19¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 20¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $3 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +16.4% +5.3% 44% 16% -9.2%
≤30d 172 +28.1% +15.9% 52% 20% -8.8%
≤90d 450 +10.9% +0.3% 52% 22% -37.2%
all 484 +17.0% +5.8% 54% 25% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 25% -1.7%
10% -4.3% 16% -11.1%
15% -13.5% 12% -19.7%
20% -22.0% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.81 · official $423.35 (match) · 3500 history records