Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f07…8043 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% $0
politics 36% $0
tech 14% $0
crypto 7% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 14 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage90d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 21 $79 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $79 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $79 13h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $79 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $79 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $79 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 29d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 35d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $79 39d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $79 39d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $79 43d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $79 44d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 49d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 49d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 70d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 70d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 71d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 73d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $81 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $80 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records