Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5f07…9d0f sports 566 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,542 (-1%) realized −$5,532 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%280W / 285L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$700per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Fees−$5,050est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,022now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$34,497
other 5% +$1,531
crypto 3% −$2,014
world 3% +$550
finance 0% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +10.6% +0.0% 56% 53% -22.8%
≤30d 214 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 45% -24.0%
≤90d 565 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 46% -17.3%
all 565 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 46% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 46% -17.3%
10% -21.2% 44% -25.2%
15% ← realistic here -28.8% 38% -32.5%
20% -35.8% 32% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$677) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$423 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,022
Realized−$5,532
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses280 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$5,050
Open positions1
Markets (closed)565 / 566
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$700
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 565 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 50¢ 50¢ $1,033 $1,022 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $224 −$105 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $149 −$147 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $394 −$92 -24%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $902 +$484 +54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $2,301 −$1,417 -62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $4,661 −$2,787 -60%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $2,371 +$729 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $597 −$353 -59%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $144 +$106 +74%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 25 $1,430 −$1,425 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $215 −$74 -34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $1,339 +$21 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $285 +$215 +75%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $1,115 +$885 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $520 −$520 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $400 +$200 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,014 −$583 -29%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango Jun 24 $374 +$206 +55%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $229 −$225 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $2,927 +$673 +23%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $279 +$221 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $254 −$250 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $1,108 +$992 +90%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $295 +$267 +91%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $3,399 −$3,366 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$298 +146%
Struff vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 23 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$100 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $57 +$43 +76%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $93 −$92 -98%
Struff vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $264 +$236 +89%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $1,035 +$965 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $178 +$259 +146%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $922 −$24 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $521 +$1,040 +200%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $701 −$183 -26%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $448 +$251 +56%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $1,026 +$665 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $1,719 −$1,692 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $279 −$159 -57%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $1,911 −$984 -52%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $65 +$135 +206%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $1,240 −$1,227 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $370 +$730 +197%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $136 −$2 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2,174 −$2,145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $400 −$224 -56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,580 +$160 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $195 −$190 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1,992 +$406 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $1,048 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $67 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Sri Lanka 51¢ $302 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 65¢ $16 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 65¢ $378 3h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $1,387 3h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 65¢ $902 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $25 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $110 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $80 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $5 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $1 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $1 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $15 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $636 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 25¢ $11 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 64¢ $2,237 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 64¢ $64 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 16¢ $312 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 57¢ $1,155 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,022.31 · official $1,022.31 (match) · 3500 history records