Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f05…e583 sports 104 markets active 11d ago coverage 248d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%55W / 49L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,733per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 248d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15,274
other 0% −$101
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 82 -10.3% -18.8% 61% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 82 -10.3% -18.8% 61% 44% -8.2%
all 104 -15.4% -23.4% 53% 36% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -29.2%
10% -30.8% 27% -36.0%
15% -37.4% 23% -42.2%
20% -43.6% 17% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$331 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage248d
Avg bet$5,733
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $1 +$1 +69%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $1 +$1 +44%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $1 +$1 +78%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $1 +$1 +61%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Andrej Martin Jun 10 $1 +$1 +51%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Ruslan Tiukaev vs Lorenzo Bocchi Jun 10 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +152%
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Yufei Ren Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Giravanz Kitakyūshū win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +76%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +129%
ITF Focsani: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni Jun 07 $1 +$2 +129%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Birmingham: Nao Hibino vs Janice Tjen Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
ITF Caserta: Martina Trevisan vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 05 $1 $0 +21%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 97¢ $2 10d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 40¢ $1 18d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Mark Lajal 59¢ $1 18d
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 69¢ $1 18d
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano BUY Filippo Romano 56¢ $1 18d
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 53¢ $1 18d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 55¢ $1 18d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 62¢ $1 18d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 68¢ $1 18d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 84¢ $1 18d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 54¢ $1 18d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Andrej Martin BUY Petr Brunclik 66¢ $1 18d
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 51¢ $1 18d
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 82¢ $1 18d
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Ruslan Tiukaev vs Lorenzo Bocchi BUY Lorenzo Bocchi 69¢ $1 21d
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Yufei Ren BUY Yufei Ren 56¢ $1 21d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 21d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 21d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 21d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 21d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21d
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 21d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 21d
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 21d
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 21d
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 36¢ $1 21d
Will Giravanz Kitakyūshū win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 21d
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 21d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 23d
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.05 · official $13.05 (match) · 514 history records