Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5F 0x5f02…e581 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-5%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$185
14 days+$185
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$91
sports 26% +$18
crypto 26% −$31
world 3% −$23
weather 2% −$4
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +10.5% -0.0% 69% 54% +9.1%
≤30d 13 +10.5% -0.0% 69% 54% +9.1%
≤90d 32 +4.7% -5.2% 56% 44% +6.0%
all 45 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 33% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 33% -6.9%
10% -21.8% 22% -15.8%
15% -29.4% 16% -23.9%
20% -36.3% 13% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage585d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $334 +$102 +30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $109 +$21 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $122 −$14 -11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $82 −$10 -12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $72 +$50 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $74 +$8 +11%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $34 +$22 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$3 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23? Apr 22 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22? Apr 22 $4 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 21? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 21? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22? Apr 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22? Apr 21 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 21? Apr 21 $4 +$8 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 19 $53 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 19 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 19 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 19 $39 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 19 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 06 $20 −$9 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 11 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jul 10 $34 −$34 -100%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 21 $56 −$23 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 12 $164 −$2 -1%
Coinbase #1 finance app on Friday? Nov 12 $84 −$20 -24%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 8-15? Nov 12 $52 −$8 -16%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 8-15? Nov 12 $55 −$18 -33%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 8-15? Nov 12 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? Nov 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 8-15? Nov 12 $32 −$24 -74%
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15? Nov 12 $8 +$3 +45%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 8-15? Nov 12 $13 −$8 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 88¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 78¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 79¢ $181 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 49¢ $130 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $130 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $109 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 73¢ $109 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $122 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $72 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $72 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $82 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 79¢ $82 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $55 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 92¢ $0 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 92¢ $9 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 92¢ $46 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $34 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $18 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $18 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $15 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $12 27h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $2 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records