Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f00…7e3c crypto 940 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 236d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$477 (-6%) realized −$533 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%485W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$318
other 7% +$205
politics 2% +$13
tech 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -94.9% -95.4% 0% 0% -95.4%
all 939 -6.7% -15.5% 52% 44% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% -11.7%
10% -23.6% 36% -20.1%
15% -31.0% 28% -27.9%
20% -37.8% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$533
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses485 / 454
Open positions1
Markets (closed)939 / 940
History coverage237d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 939 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 75¢ 98¢ $185 $241 +$56 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28? Mar 30 $30 −$28 -95%
Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein? Feb 27 $195 +$13 +7%
Will Leavitt say "Venezuela" during the next press briefing? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? Feb 13 $84 −$19 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 05 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 25 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 25 $9 +$7 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 25 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Dec 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Dec 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 24 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $49 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $15 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $29 8d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $29 9d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $29 10d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $20 10d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 115d
Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein? BUY Yes 94¢ $195 126d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $49 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 129d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? SELL Yes 12¢ $64 129d
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 129d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 132d
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 132d
Will Leavitt say "Venezuela" during the next press briefing? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 137d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $187 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.04 · official $241.04 (match) · 3500 history records