Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5efe…9f7d other 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$94 (-4%) realized −$92 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$111
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$123
sports 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.7% -6.2% 52% 48% -15.4%
≤30d 62 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 62 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 44% -15.1%
all 62 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 44% -15.1%
10% -22.3% 35% -23.3%
15% -29.8% 31% -30.7%
20% -36.7% 24% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$801
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)62 / 75
History coverage12d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $702 $699 −$4 (-1%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $30 +$8 +27%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $701 +$35 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $895 −$156 -17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 $0 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +60%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 14m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL No 100¢ $38 14m
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $702 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $736 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 78¢ $30 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $701 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $740 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $2 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $895 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 41h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 42h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $801.00 · official $801.03 (match) · 136 history records