Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5efd…adb3
crypto · 103 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$179 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$219 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 68
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$209
14 days−$219
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 39¢ 34¢ $49 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 8? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$13 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$19 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$14 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$206
weather 11% −$19
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -15.1% -23.2% 36% 34% -27.5%
≤30d 102 -21.7% -29.2% 33% 31% -28.2%
≤90d 102 -21.7% -29.2% 33% 31% -28.2%
all 102 -21.7% -29.2% 33% 31% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 31% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 28% -35.1%
15% -42.2% 24% -41.4%
20% -47.8% 19% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.51 · official $12.69 · 248 history records