Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5efa…5cac crypto 724 markets active 3d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-2%) realized −$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%375W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$58
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$387
sports 8% +$6
other 2% +$5
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 46% -30.5%
≤30d 44 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 43% -32.9%
≤90d 159 -18.0% -25.8% 45% 40% -24.8%
all 724 -8.5% -17.3% 52% 46% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 46% -14.5%
10% -25.2% 37% -22.7%
15% -32.4% 27% -30.1%
20% -39.0% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses375 / 349
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)724 / 724
History coverage158d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 724 Trades
no open positions (259 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$6 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$7 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$23 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$10 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$7 +603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$12 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2091 history records