Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5ef7…0f4f crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+0%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%146W / 11L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$101
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 -9.7% -18.3% 90% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 32 -8.3% -17.1% 88% 0% -8.7%
all 157 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 1% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.78 per $1 lost it wins $6.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses146 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage264d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 99¢ $216 $216 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $213 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $212 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 25 $211 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 23 $212 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? May 21 $211 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $211 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $209 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $208 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $206 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $204 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $204 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10PM ET Apr 14 $346 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9PM ET Apr 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11AM ET Apr 11 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10AM ET Apr 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $173 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $169 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $169 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $69 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $167 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $167 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $164 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? Mar 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $164 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 25? Mar 01 $162 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $160 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $158 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $157 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $216 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $215 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $214 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $214 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $213 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $212 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $211 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $212 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? SELL No 100¢ $212 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? BUY No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $211 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $212 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $211 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $209 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $209 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $208 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $206 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $204 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.67 · official $215.67 (match) · 345 history records