Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ef5…343e world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,048 (-5%) realized −$2,057 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate65%37W / 20L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$278
7 days−$273
14 days−$606
30 days−$1,662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$1,854
other 2% +$69
politics 2% −$18
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.8% -21.1% 55% 9% -12.1%
≤30d 31 -17.2% -25.1% 52% 10% -14.2%
≤90d 57 -9.4% -18.1% 65% 16% -13.6%
all 57 -9.4% -18.1% 65% 16% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 16% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 5% -21.9%
15% -33.1% 2% -29.5%
20% -39.6% 2% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$655) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$234 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized−$2,057
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses37 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage54d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $372 $378 +$6 (+2%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 79¢ 80¢ $237 $238 +$2 (+1%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $188 $190 +$1 (+1%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $106 +$8 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,021 +$103 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1,734 +$168 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $204 +$4 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,791 −$587 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $635 +$13 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $459 −$17 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,513 +$392 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $948 −$293 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $262 −$54 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $230 −$77 -34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $2,141 −$180 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $236 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $296 +$8 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $104 +$8 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $306 +$19 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $186 −$28 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $134 −$56 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $112 −$34 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $655 −$618 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,274 −$1,571 -48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $570 +$28 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $430 +$45 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3,155 +$95 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5,864 +$474 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,716 +$568 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,212 +$413 +34%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $301 −$230 -76%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $294 −$191 -65%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 24 $88 −$70 -80%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 14 $88 +$6 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $960 +$57 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 13 $1,193 +$22 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 11 $157 +$131 +83%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $180 +$16 +9%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 06 $133 +$10 +8%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 06 $110 +$9 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $474 +$49 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $68 −$2 -3%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 06 $126 +$28 +22%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 06 $148 +$30 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $402 +$13 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $382 +$57 +15%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 04 $155 +$7 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 04 $45 −$21 -47%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 04 $207 −$35 -17%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 May 02 $32 +$9 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $425 −$425 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 01 $75 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $184 31m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $4 38m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $372 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 57¢ $114 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $78 5h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $79 5h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $50 6h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $29 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $105 10h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $1 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $188 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $88 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $115 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $74 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $285 27h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 91¢ $64 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $158 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $940 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $79 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $455 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $455 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $24 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $97 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $63 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $161 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $263 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.44 · official $994.45 (match) · 976 history records