Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ef2…f473 sports 281 markets active 4h ago coverage 397d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 397d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,392 (+6%) realized +$23,558 · open −$166
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%89W / 188L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,492per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 397d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$13,415
sports 35% −$9,303
crypto 18% +$4,303
politics 8% −$3,265
tech 2% −$5,778
finance 1% −$637
culture 0% +$816
world 0% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 10 -60.1% -63.9% 10% 10% -31.7%
all 277 -19.5% -27.2% 32% 30% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 30% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 27% -18.3%
15% -40.5% 25% -26.2%
20% -46.3% 23% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,650) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,264 vs −$1,075 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$3,231
Realized+$23,558
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses89 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)277 / 281
History coverage397d ⚠
Avg bet$1,492
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,678 $1,613 −$66 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,069 $1,019 −$50 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $125 −$25 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 09 $215 −$3 -2%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $626 −$626 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $590 −$590 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $1,277 −$1,277 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division? Mar 28 $1,136 +$2,281 +201%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech: O/U 49.5 Dec 30 $217 −$217 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5 Dec 21 $582 −$582 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-3.5) Dec 21 $980 −$980 -100%
Canadiens vs. Penguins Dec 21 $765 −$765 -100%
Vikings vs. Giants Dec 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Bills (-10.5) Dec 21 $2,550 −$196 -8%
Canucks vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 Dec 20 $302 +$247 +82%
Canucks vs. Islanders Dec 20 $900 +$1,100 +122%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Dec 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 20 $261 −$260 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 20 $126 −$126 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Dec 19 $540 −$540 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $170 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $743 +$1,941 +261%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5 Dec 19 $980 −$980 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $3,615 −$633 -18%
Will the Minnesota Vikings make the playoffs? Dec 19 $52 +$48 +92%
Udinese Calcio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 Dec 08 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-5.5) Dec 06 $2,470 −$2,470 -100%
North Texas vs. Tulane Dec 06 $1,150 +$1,320 +115%
Spread: Raptors (-6.5) Dec 06 $1,167 −$1,167 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.5 Dec 05 $1,158 +$1,158 +100%
Georgia vs. Alabama Dec 04 $1,333 −$1,333 -100%
Wizards vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5 Dec 02 $641 −$641 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 02 $8,853 +$16,365 +185%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $3,015 −$2,678 -89%
Texans vs. Colts Nov 30 $1,093 −$1,093 -100%
Capitals vs. Islanders Nov 30 $900 −$900 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Nov 27 $620 +$645 +104%
Spread: Seton Hall Pirates (-8.5) Nov 26 $1,189 −$1,189 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $535 −$535 -100%
Will the Detroit Lions win the NFC North? Nov 26 $10,003 −$9,147 -91%
Jets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 Nov 26 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025? Nov 25 $124 +$304 +245%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5 Nov 25 $1,956 −$1,956 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5 Nov 25 $960 −$960 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West? Nov 25 $14,847 −$5,299 -36%
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2 Nov 25 $5,167 −$5,167 -100%
New Mexico vs. Air Force Nov 22 $783 −$783 -100%
Missouri vs. Oklahoma Nov 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $566 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,087 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $67 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $158 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $252 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $585 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $21 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $1 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,231.43 · official $3,231.43 (match) · 3500 history records