trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 100% | 0% | -7.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -17.2% | -25.1% | 75% | 50% | +3.5% |
| all | 8 | -25.6% | -32.7% | 62% | 38% | +7.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -32.7% | 38% | +7.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -39.2% | 12% | -3.0% |
| 15% | -45.0% | 12% | -12.4% |
| 20% | -50.4% | 12% | -21.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 91¢ | 87¢ | $5,230 | $4,968 | −$262 (-5%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $1,450 | $1,450 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad | Jun 02 | $1,951 | +$39 | +2% |
| Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list | May 18 | $1,800 | +$219 | +12% |
| Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian | May 07 | $83 | −$82 | -99% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | May 07 | $14,998 | +$2,529 | +17% |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Sep 29 | $1,270 | −$1,270 | -100% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Sep 22 | $400 | −$400 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Sep 22 | $2,000 | +$168 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 13 | $8,021 | +$4,451 | +56% |