Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
5E 0x5ef0…1409 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 705d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,407 (+14%) realized +$5,669 · open −$262
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$3,732per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$6,418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1,259
politics 36% +$4,106
other 21% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 4 -17.2% -25.1% 75% 50% +3.5%
all 8 -25.6% -32.7% 62% 38% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 38% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 12% -3.0%
15% -45.0% 12% -12.4%
20% -50.4% 12% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,481 vs −$584 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.23 per $1 lost it wins $4.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$6,418
Realized+$5,669
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage705d
Avg bet$3,732
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 91¢ 87¢ $5,230 $4,968 −$262 (-5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $1,450 $1,450 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $1,951 +$39 +2%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $1,800 +$219 +12%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian May 07 $83 −$82 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? May 07 $14,998 +$2,529 +17%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Sep 29 $1,270 −$1,270 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Sep 22 $2,000 +$168 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $8,021 +$4,451 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $1,005 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,452 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $80 26d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $151 26d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $503 26d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY No 98¢ $1,951 36d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $108 36d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 94¢ $70 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 89¢ $803 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 88¢ $23 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 87¢ $2 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 87¢ $33 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 88¢ $30 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 88¢ $181 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 89¢ $357 36d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 88¢ $301 36d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 50¢ $4 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 51¢ $15 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 63¢ $3 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 63¢ $3 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 63¢ $6 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 36¢ $6 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 73¢ $1 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 58¢ $14 47d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $3,508 47d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian BUY Yes 65¢ $30 47d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No $1,270 267d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? BUY No 86¢ $14,998 267d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $400 274d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,417.68 · official $6,417.68 (match) · 41 history records