Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eee…f427 world 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$274 (-4%) realized −$264 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%73W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$143
14 days+$110
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$397
other 38% +$103
crypto 4% +$12
politics 2% −$12
tech 2% +$3
sports 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 61% -3.4%
≤30d 57 -13.4% -21.7% 63% 33% -6.6%
≤90d 102 -6.8% -15.6% 72% 33% -13.2%
all 102 -6.8% -15.6% 72% 33% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 33% -13.2%
10% -23.7% 13% -21.5%
15% -31.1% 7% -29.1%
20% -37.8% 3% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$33 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses73 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)102 / 111
History coverage52d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $108 $94 −$14 (-13%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+103%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $201 +$31 +15%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $200 +$7 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +43%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$14 -68%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $209 −$21 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$13 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $101 −$28 -28%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -61%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $62 −$8 -12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $121 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 84¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 5d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $81 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 98¢ $217 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $200 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL No 89¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.31 · official $330.31 (match) · 292 history records