Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ee9…fa99 crypto 40 markets active 6d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$460 (-48%) realized −$460 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$203
14 days−$203
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$493
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -54.1% -58.5% 18% 9% -75.4%
≤30d 12 -58.0% -62.0% 17% 8% -75.9%
≤90d 40 -56.5% -60.7% 22% 20% -64.4%
all 40 -56.5% -60.7% 22% 20% -64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 20% -64.4%
10% -64.4% 15% -67.8%
15% -67.9% 15% -70.9%
20% -71.0% 10% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage26d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$9 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$55 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$13 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $111 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 17 $31 −$6 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 17 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 17 $10 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 17 $98 −$75 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records