Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5E 0x5ee5…2a3d crypto 1735 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$549 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%1686W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$438
7 days−$428
14 days−$376
30 days−$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$39
sports 1% −$160
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 -27.1% -34.0% 70% 4% -27.4%
≤30d 862 -9.1% -17.7% 88% 5% -16.7%
≤90d 1651 -5.1% -14.1% 92% 3% -13.5%
all 1816 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 3% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -13.0%
10% -21.8% 1% -21.3%
15% -29.4% 0% -28.9%
20% -36.3% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$549
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1686 / 130
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1816 / 1735
History coverage96d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1816 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.02 · official $22.02 (match) · 3500 history records