Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ee4…747a other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$224 (-11%) realized −$206 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$240
sports 15% +$244
crypto 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -13.2% -21.5% 38% 27% -7.0%
≤30d 26 -13.2% -21.5% 38% 27% -7.0%
≤90d 26 -13.2% -21.5% 38% 27% -7.0%
all 49 -24.8% -32.0% 37% 27% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 27% -8.8%
10% -38.5% 22% -17.5%
15% -44.4% 14% -25.5%
20% -49.9% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage162d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 92¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$251 +246%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$32 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$85 -56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$19 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$56 -92%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 −$35 -50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $273 −$11 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $206 +$68 +33%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $43 −$39 -92%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 14 $41 +$1 +3%
First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Dominican Rep. Mar 13 $26 +$15 +59%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $1 $0 +37%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $21 +$14 +66%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jan 30 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jan 30 $6 $0 -6%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $2 +$2 +78%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jan 21 $1 $0 +8%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Jan 21 $1 $0 +24%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 21 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the first round by 2–4%? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the first round by less than 2%? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the first round by at least 6%? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the first round by 4–6%? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $5 +$2 +32%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 07 $11 −$2 -23%
Will André Ventura win the first round by at least 4%? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will André Ventura win the first round by 2–4%? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will André Ventura win the first round by less than 2%? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $30 6m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $353 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $32 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $69 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $84 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.94 · official $308.68 · 142 history records