Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5ee4…c168 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$519 (+19%) realized +$399 · open +$120
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%30W / 30L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days+$174
14 days+$210
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$306
sports 48% +$647
crypto 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +14.7% +3.8% 57% 57% -1.9%
≤30d 60 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% -0.6%
≤90d 60 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% -0.6%
all 60 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 50% -0.6%
10% -13.6% 50% -10.1%
15% -21.9% 48% -18.8%
20% -29.6% 47% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$36 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$399
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses30 / 30
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage21d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 90¢ $100 $210 +$110 (+110%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+50%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $152 +$116 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 +$142 +93%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 +$21 +83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$68 +67%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $126 +$75 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $126 −$125 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $161 +$83 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$29 +72%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$29 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$28 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$23 +33%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$16 +50%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 +$150 +375%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$60 +294%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $48 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $50 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 3h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $152 8h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 31h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 31h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 33h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $102 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $25 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $25 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $101 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $126 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $126 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $60 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.92 · official $250.75 (match) · 124 history records