Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ee4…f1b2 politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%7W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$5
sports 22% −$1
crypto 11% +$1
other 9% −$1
culture 3% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 56 -4.8% -13.9% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses7 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage235d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9? May 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $2 $0 -20%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $94 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $95 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $1 $0 -17%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 6? Jan 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $197 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $95 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $1 $0 -19%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $289 $0 -0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 08 $99 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $1 $0 -33%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 14 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 102d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 102d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 104d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 106d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 106d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 107d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 110d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 110d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? BUY No 100¢ $95 118d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 123d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 124d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 124d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 125d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 132d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 134d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY No 100¢ $93 136d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 139d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 139d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 139d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 141d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 142d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 143d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 144d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $97 145d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $97 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records