Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5ee2…de75 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$62 (+12%) realized +$11 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$51
sports 19% +$7
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 50% -1.6%
≤30d 2 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 50% -1.6%
≤90d 2 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 50% -1.6%
all 2 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 50% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 50% -1.6%
10% -2.2% 50% -11.0%
15% -11.7% 0% -19.6%
20% -20.4% 0% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $212 $200 −$13 (-6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $96 $156 +$60 (+62%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 19h
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $99 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 19h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $107 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 88¢ $74 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 88¢ $33 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.91 · official $457.91 (match) · 14 history records