Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ee2…0b5e other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$20
other 25% −$25
politics 20% −$10
crypto 8% −$4
finance 6% −$8
economics 5% −$3
tech 4% −$6
world 3% −$2
culture 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -0.9% -10.4% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 112 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 138 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage108d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $67 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $166 −$2 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $73 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $129 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $66 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $161 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $183 $0 +0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $609 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $56 −$5 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $58 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $102 $0 -0%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $60 $0 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $355 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $272 −$2 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $62 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $73 43m
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $66 1h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $67 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $75 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $76 13h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $73 14h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $73 20h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $74 21h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $74 26h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $70 26h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $70 35h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $66 35h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $66 42h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $28 43h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $28 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 95¢ $57 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $39 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $39 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $54 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $55 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.20 · official $73.20 (match) · 539 history records