Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ee1…9801 other 355 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 198d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,932 (+3%) realized +$7,888 · open +$44
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate54%191W / 161L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$846per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$6,972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$633
14 days+$663
30 days+$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$4,882
other 44% +$1,082
politics 0% −$32
world 0% +$15
weather 0% −$27
crypto 0% −$15
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -15.5% -23.5% 82% 3% -8.3%
≤30d 43 -15.7% -23.7% 81% 7% -8.3%
≤90d 140 -29.1% -35.9% 53% 14% -11.2%
all 352 -14.5% -22.7% 54% 22% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 22% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 15% -16.5%
15% -36.8% 11% -24.6%
20% -43.0% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$886) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$233 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$6,972
Realized+$7,888
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses191 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)352 / 355
History coverage199d ⚠
Avg bet$846
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,201 $3,227 +$26 (+1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,054 $2,072 +$18 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Haiti? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,672 $1,673 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1,432 +$47 +3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,135 +$253 +22%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,001 +$33 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $761 +$17 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,381 +$19 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $580 +$16 +3%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $2,314 +$18 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,795 +$18 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $744 +$6 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $295 −$285 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $2,545 +$34 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $781 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $510 +$16 +3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $484 +$30 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $429 +$28 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $2,994 +$31 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $573 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $836 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $779 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,535 +$27 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $862 +$33 +4%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $134 +$8 +6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $906 +$15 +2%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,482 +$46 +3%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $600 +$46 +8%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,565 +$6 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,178 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $28 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3,498 +$61 +2%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2,722 +$42 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6,353 +$87 +1%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1,726 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $683 +$28 +4%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $240 +$29 +12%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $2,815 +$11 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$17 +17%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Slovenia vs Guernsey May 20 $184 +$4 +2%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 20 $14 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 2 Manchester City FC? May 19 $560 +$53 +10%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5 May 19 $1,861 +$73 +4%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 19 $271 −$271 -100%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 19 $435 −$420 -96%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 0.5 May 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $3,203 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Haiti? BUY No 99¢ $1,673 13h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $2,055 14h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 97¢ $1,432 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY No 98¢ $761 25h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $21 33h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $14 34h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $14 34h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $14 34h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY No 99¢ $1,381 35h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY No 97¢ $580 35h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? BUY No 99¢ $2,314 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $1,795 35h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $14 44h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $14 45h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $14 45h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $860 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $1,685 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan $14 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 100¢ $1,766 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $48 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $48 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 98¢ $903 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $56 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $56 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 97¢ $114 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 97¢ $19 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 96¢ $271 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,972.40 · official $6,972.98 (match) · 3500 history records