Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5E 0x5ee1…4f21 weather 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%41W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$66
14 days+$51
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$39
sports 4% −$9
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +14.0% +3.1% 44% 38% +19.8%
≤30d 66 -12.7% -21.0% 41% 33% -5.5%
≤90d 101 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 36% -7.3%
all 101 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 36% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 36% -7.3%
10% -25.5% 30% -16.1%
15% -32.7% 29% -24.2%
20% -39.3% 25% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses41 / 60
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage60d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25? No 88¢ 90¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 25? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $24 +$10 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$6 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $49 +$17 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$24 +459%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$5 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 +$18 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$11 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$18 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 −$13 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 5? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$4 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$4 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 1? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 2? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 2? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 30? Jun 01 $6 +$13 +223%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 30? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 30? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 29? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 88¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 65¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 80¢ $49 20h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 69¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $66 26h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 73¢ $49 44h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 45h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 78¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $48 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $44 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.97 · official $70.97 (match) · 243 history records