Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5edf…97bf crypto 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%301W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$24
14 days+$35
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$86
finance 6% +$2
other 5% −$1
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 156 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 310 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 0% -10.8%
all 310 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$21 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses301 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)310 / 310
History coverage72d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 310 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 96¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.77 · official $0.00 (match) · 1339 history records