Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

5E 0x5ede…a7a9 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$387 (-92%) realized −$387 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip

Net edge-82%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-81.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	5	-80.0%	-81.9%	20%	0%	-99.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-81.9%	0%	-99.1%
10%	-83.6%	0%	-99.2%
15%	-85.2%	0%	-99.2%
20%	-86.7%	0%	-99.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -80% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$97 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized−$387

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage209d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5)	United States	36¢	36¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-02-07?	Feb 07	$114	−$114	-100%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?	Jan 03	$4	$0	+0%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5	Dec 28	$104	−$104	-100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-12-21?	Dec 21	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-22?	Nov 22	$69	−$69	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY United States	36¢	$30	1h
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-02-07?	BUY Yes	32¢	$114	132d
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5	BUY Over	44¢	$104	172d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?	BUY No	100¢	$4	177d
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-12-21?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	180d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-22?	BUY Yes	58¢	$69	208d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.60 · official $28.60 (match) · 7 history records