Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5edb…00a9 sports 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (586 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,355 (-15%) realized −$1,328 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%128W / 141L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day585.6pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$78
other 4% +$23
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (586 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 +10.8% +0.3% 48% 42% -8.1%
≤30d 269 +10.8% +0.3% 48% 42% -8.1%
≤90d 269 +10.8% +0.3% 48% 42% -8.1%
all 269 +10.8% +0.3% 48% 42% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover585.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 42% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 37% -16.9%
15% -18.1% 30% -24.9%
20% -26.1% 24% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized−$1,328
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses128 / 141
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions103
Markets (closed)269 / 372
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day585.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Gianmarco Ferrari 97¢ 94¢ $121 $118 −$3 (-3%)
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Giorgio Tabacco 74¢ 77¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 87¢ 96¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 50¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Francisca Jorge 86¢ 89¢ $21 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 72¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 62¢ 66¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Gonzalo Bueno 73¢ 76¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jurij Rodionov 76¢ 78¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 63¢ 64¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) Cilic 65¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Bueno (-1.5) vs Berkieta (+1.5) Bueno 52¢ 52¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Majchrzak (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) Lehecka 79¢ 81¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Gonzalo Bueno vs. Tomasz Berkieta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Rio Noguchi 56¢ 60¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 55¢ 52¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) Kenin 62¢ 64¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Savva Rybkin vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Lorenzo Gagliardo 85¢ 55¢ $18 $11 −$6 (-36%)
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba Carles Cordoba 68¢ 75¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Set Handicap: Sweeny (-1.5) vs Fearnley (+1.5) Fearnley 85¢ 50¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-41%)
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Yastremska 89¢ 50¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ 74¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Mannarino 59¢ 74¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Hernan Casanova 86¢ 86¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Xiyu Wang 84¢ 82¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$9 +40%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Mikel Martinez vs Ryan Nijboer Jun 16 $43 +$5 +12%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1 +$3 +216%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $1 +$3 +262%
Set Handicap: Popyrin (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo Jun 16 $27 +$5 +21%
Hynek Barton vs. Kimmer Coppejans: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $16 +$14 +88%
Linda Noskova vs. Renata Zarazua: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Luca Parenti vs. Lorenzo Berto: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $2 +$1 +67%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Set Handicap: Hazawa (-1.5) vs Oki (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Ryota Tanuma Jun 16 $19 +$5 +27%
Set Handicap: Ortenzi (-1.5) vs Rispoli (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $25 −$2 -8%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $55 −$2 -3%
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 −$3 -5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +79%
Karen Khachanov vs. Ethan Quinn: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +109%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jun 16 $64 +$12 +18%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $7 −$2 -30%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $2 +$6 +244%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +93%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $9 +$7 +75%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Rocha (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Set Handicap: Bonzi (-1.5) vs Barrios (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 56¢ $2 3m
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 86¢ $8 3m
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 82¢ $6 6m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 9m
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) SELL Birrell 99¢ $30 10m
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Mikel Martinez vs Ryan Nijboer SELL Ryan Nijboer 100¢ $48 10m
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 64¢ $3 21m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 23m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 23m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 54¢ $3 48m
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Francisca Jorge 86¢ $10 52m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 55¢ $2 53m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 56¢ $2 53m
Jurij Rodionov vs. Quinn Vandecasteele: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $0 53m
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele BUY Jurij Rodionov 76¢ $6 53m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 56¢ $2 54m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 56¢ $3 56m
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Masarova (+1.5) BUY Masarova 58¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 55¢ $2 1h
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh BUY Keisuke Saitoh 63¢ $4 1h
Set Handicap: Mochizuki (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5) BUY Mochizuki 21¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Masarova (+1.5) BUY Masarova 58¢ $1 1h
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh BUY Keisuke Saitoh 64¢ $3 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 69¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 56¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 56¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
ITF Tokyo: Sora Fukuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa BUY Sora Fukuda 63¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $683.13 · official $681.88 (match) · 3500 history records