Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5eda…d453 other 547 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,099 (+2%) realized +$730 · open +$369
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%288W / 246L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$505
14 days−$433
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$1,894
politics 32% −$842
culture 5% +$75
world 4% +$62
crypto 1% +$48
sports 1% −$59
tech 1% −$56
economics 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 7% -18.4%
≤30d 40 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 10% -12.6%
≤90d 147 +13.8% +2.9% 56% 33% -7.2%
all 534 +9.6% -0.8% 54% 35% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 35% -8.5%
10% -10.3% 28% -17.2%
15% -19.0% 24% -25.2%
20% -26.9% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$2,202
Realized+$730
Unrealized+$369
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses288 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)534 / 547
History coverage404d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,072 $1,103 +$31 (+3%)
Will France be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $379 $396 +$17 (+4%)
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? Yes 32¢ 61¢ $177 $336 +$158 (+89%)
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? Yes 30¢ 64¢ $121 $256 +$135 (+112%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 35¢ 46¢ $35 $46 +$10 (+30%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $34 $43 +$9 (+25%)
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next PMQ? Yes 10¢ 52¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+420%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-53%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $961 −$7 -1%
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 21 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $1,425 −$26 -2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $573 −$75 -13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $159 −$80 -50%
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $148 +$7 +5%
Will James Trafford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $449 +$13 +3%
Will Dan Burn be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $682 +$18 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $95 +$3 +3%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $413 −$403 -98%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 −$4 -9%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $284 −$11 -4%
Will Virgil van Dijk be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $447 +$21 +5%
Will Bruno Guimaraes be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $176 +$15 +8%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Jordan Pickford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $48 $0 +1%
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $190 −$35 -18%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $63 +$101 +161%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $746 +$14 +2%
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $36 −$13 -38%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 08 $26 −$15 -56%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $96 −$22 -23%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $187 +$12 +6%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $254 −$4 -1%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $75 −$3 -4%
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $45 +$18 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $380 +$7 +2%
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $70 −$31 -44%
Will Dominic Solanke be included in England's official 2026 World Cup Jun 01 $340 +$59 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Jarrod Bowen be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,553 +$27 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026? May 30 $369 +$6 +2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 26 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Tino Livramento be included in England's official 2026 World Cup May 21 $70 +$29 +42%
Will Eberechi Eze be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ May 21 $266 +$68 +26%
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Russian" during the next Prime Minister' May 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next Prime Minister's Questions May 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Qu May 20 $48 +$23 +48%
Will James Garner be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $234 +$18 +8%
Will Adam Wharton be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $147 −$1 -1%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $468 +$55 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 30¢ $124 1h
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 30¢ $131 1h
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1,073 2h
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,201.93 · official $2,188.78 (match) · 2153 history records