Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5ed8…303d crypto 934 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19,304 (+13%) realized +$19,304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate88%827W / 110L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,940
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 +16.1% +5.1% 93% 27% -4.2%
≤30d 722 +10.1% -0.4% 89% 24% -5.5%
≤90d 937 +7.9% -2.4% 88% 24% -5.3%
all 937 +7.9% -2.4% 88% 24% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 24% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 16% -14.3%
15% -20.2% 11% -22.6%
20% -28.1% 9% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$94 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$19,304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses827 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)937 / 934
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 937 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $166 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $396 +$40 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $244 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $400 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$13 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $265 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $218 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $345 +$640 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $208 +$76 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $218 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $85 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $402 +$65 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $401 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $316 +$24 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $54 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $202 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records