Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ed4…ff9f politics 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$5
world 19% −$2
crypto 15% −$2
other 7% −$4
economics 3% $0
sports 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -2.1% -11.5% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -1.9% -11.2% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,315
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage90d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,268 $1,268 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 23 $1,205 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Apr 21 $17 −$3 -16%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $74 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in April 2026? Apr 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $203 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Mar 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Mar 26 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $1,242 2m
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 10m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 19m
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 27m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,210 37m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $26 51m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $942 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $380 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,324 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $62 21h
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,263 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $12 22h
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,252 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $21 22h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 22h
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $855 23h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $349 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,205 23h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 60d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 61d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL Yes $2 63d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL Yes $7 63d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL Yes $5 63d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY Yes $17 63d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $8 67d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $8 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,315.48 · official $1,315.48 (match) · 62 history records