Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ed1…7d4d other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+14%) realized +$119 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$8
sports 30% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.0% -30.4% 45% 45% -11.4%
≤30d 11 -23.0% -30.4% 45% 45% -11.4%
≤90d 11 -23.0% -30.4% 45% 45% -11.4%
all 11 -23.0% -30.4% 45% 45% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 45% -11.4%
10% -37.0% 45% -19.9%
15% -43.1% 36% -27.6%
20% -48.7% 9% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 29¢ 9¢ $34 $11 −$23 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $122 −$74 -61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $286 −$30 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$10 +26%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $40 +$18 +46%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $6 +$3 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 13¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 29¢ $35 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 53¢ $28 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 57¢ $122 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $128 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $122 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 56¢ $128 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $159 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $6 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 81¢ $27 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $6 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $6 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $40 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.55 · official $10.55 (match) · 25 history records