Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ed0…25a8 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$84 (-15%) realized −$118 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$65
world 15% −$24
politics 8% −$14
culture 7% −$25
sports 3% +$13
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 33 -46.4% -51.5% 15% 12% -53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.5% 12% -53.7%
10% -56.1% 9% -58.1%
15% -60.4% 9% -62.2%
20% -64.3% 9% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage269d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $88 $121 +$34 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $75 $91 +$16 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $75 $59 −$16 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Apr 16 $25 −$25 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? Oct 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 09 $24 −$18 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3? Oct 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 09 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Oct 08 $7 $0 -4%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 07 $8 +$7 +86%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 07 $10 +$9 +91%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $10 +$22 +219%
Will Elon tweet between 800 and 849 times September 1–30? Oct 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 04 $5 −$3 -62%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 04 $3 $0 -11%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Oct 03 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Elon tweet between 850 and 899 times September 1–30? Oct 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30? Oct 01 $10 −$3 -28%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Oct 01 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Brazilian president Lula announce re-election run by December 31? Sep 30 $10 −$3 -28%
Tylenol sues Trump by October 31? Sep 30 $5 −$1 -12%
Will JD Vance announce Presidential run in 2025? Sep 30 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025? Sep 30 $7 −$1 -13%
Israel strikes Iran by September 30? Sep 30 $7 −$6 -84%
Will Jimmy Kimmel apologize by Friday? Sep 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Sep 26 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? Sep 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $90 17d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 66d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $75 66d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $75 66d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 254d
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 254d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 256d
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 SELL Yes 26¢ $7 256d
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 BUY Yes 27¢ $7 257d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 257d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 15¢ $7 257d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 23¢ $18 257d
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $14 257d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 257d
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 257d
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 257d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 SELL Yes 12¢ $6 257d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 34¢ $3 257d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 34¢ $4 257d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 34¢ $4 257d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 34¢ $6 257d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 258d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 258d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 21¢ $3 258d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 BUY Yes 21¢ $7 258d
Ankalaev vs. Pereira SELL Pereira 99¢ $32 258d
Ankalaev vs. Pereira BUY Pereira 31¢ $10 258d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 260d
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.34 · official $271.34 (match) · 149 history records