Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5ecf…af11
weather · 624 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,346 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,727 · open −$261
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$956
Realized+$1,727
Unrealized−$261
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses221 / 476
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions66
Markets (closed)697 / 624
History coverage22d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day148.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 66 History 697 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,495
7 days−$1,388
14 days+$1,156
30 days+$1,727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $474 $455 −$20 (-4%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 7¢ 27¢ $21 $81 +$60 (+286%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $65 $48 −$17 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $43 $40 −$4 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $44 $39 −$4 (-9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 54¢ 54¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $33 $22 −$10 (-31%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Yes 57¢ 28¢ $39 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: CA Nacional Potosí (-2.5) CDOriente Petrolero 90¢ 72¢ $23 $19 −$5 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $21 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 49¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+26%)
Bamin Real Potosí vs. GV CD San José: Both Teams to Score No 92¢ 53¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $23 $10 −$13 (-55%)
Haiti elections delayed again? No 53¢ 56¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 80¢ 18¢ $39 $9 −$30 (-78%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 66¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 59¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $35 $4 −$31 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tre Johnson win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
GPT-5.4 released by March 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$14 +113%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 54% +$3,094
sports 29% +$962
world 9% +$283
other 4% +$287
crypto 3% −$6
tech 1% −$68
politics 1% −$3
finance 0% −$7
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $39 1m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $102 3m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $15 4m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $6 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $61 12m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 23m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 386 -68.5% -71.5% 11% 11% -29.3%
≤30d 697 -25.2% -32.4% 32% 31% +0.3%
≤90d 697 -25.2% -32.4% 32% 31% +0.3%
all 697 -25.2% -32.4% 32% 31% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover148.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.4% 31% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 30% -9.3%
15% -44.7% 28% -18.1%
20% -50.2% 25% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $956.08 · official $959.36 (match) · 3500 history records