Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5E 0x5ece…7bc0 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 43L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 43 +8.1% -2.2% 26% 9% -9.5%
all 61 +15.3% +4.3% 30% 16% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 16% -9.5%
10% -5.7% 16% -18.1%
15% -14.8% 16% -26.0%
20% -23.2% 16% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×13.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.74 per $1 lost it wins $5.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage107d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $238 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 22? Apr 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on April 20? Apr 21 $238 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 19? Apr 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on April 16? Apr 17 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $219 $0 +0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 11? Apr 12 $217 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $240 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $240 $0 -0%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $240 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 28? Mar 28 $240 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $240 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $240 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.33 · official $127.57 · 124 history records