Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5ecd…0787
sports · 162 markets active 53d ago
0.0score
−$61,649 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85,351 · open +$19,661
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$92,748
Realized−$85,351
Unrealized+$19,661
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses75 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions75
Markets (closed)147 / 162
History coverage36d
Avg bet$12,663
Trades / day85.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 75 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$85,609
30 days−$83,784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 43¢ 80¢ $21,442 $40,250 +$18,809 (+88%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $14,414 $17,500 +$3,086 (+21%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 80¢ 89¢ $7,635 $8,436 +$801 (+10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 64¢ $4,967 $5,339 +$372 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $139 $2,713 +$2,574 (+1853%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 52¢ 30¢ $3,640 $2,135 −$1,505 (-41%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 50¢ $2,920 $2,020 −$900 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 55¢ 94¢ $1,158 $1,967 +$809 (+70%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 64¢ 36¢ $3,210 $1,775 −$1,435 (-45%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 39¢ 24¢ $2,700 $1,680 −$1,020 (-38%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 80¢ 98¢ $1,292 $1,576 +$284 (+22%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 42¢ 23¢ $2,474 $1,380 −$1,094 (-44%)
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $1,027 $1,259 +$232 (+23%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 77¢ 59¢ $1,155 $885 −$270 (-23%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $328 $705 +$377 (+115%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 55¢ 36¢ $876 $566 −$311 (-35%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 16¢ 82¢ $64 $325 +$261 (+405%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $45 $266 +$221 (+486%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $243 $240 −$2 (-1%)
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 76¢ 24¢ $760 $240 −$520 (-68%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 66¢ 40¢ $330 $198 −$132 (-40%)
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 97¢ $117 $123 +$6 (+5%)
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? No 44¢ 98¢ $53 $117 +$65 (+122%)
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $45 $96 +$51 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $2 +$4 +178%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 05 $54,207 −$27,676 -51%
Will gpt-5.4-high have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Style Contr Jun 05 $6 +$1 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 05 $960 −$835 -87%
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,008 −$868 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att Jun 05 $557 +$247 +44%
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Jun 05 $228 −$125 -55%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 05 $4,100 −$4,100 -100%
Will gemini-3-flash have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Jun 05 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 05 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026? Jun 05 $9,700 −$9,700 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026? Jun 05 $214 +$4 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 05 $14,192 −$7,695 -54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Jun 05 $35,958 −$3,621 -10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 05 $30,662 −$25,522 -83%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Jun 05 $10,359 −$9,480 -92%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 05 $822 +$4,178 +508%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 16 $65 +$5 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 16 $180 +$1,820 +1011%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 08 $32 +$11 +33%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $4,350 $0 +0%
Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? Apr 13 $1,884 +$114 +6%
Will gemini-2.5-pro have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $134 −$124 -93%
Will gemini-3-pro have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $148 −$123 -83%
Will kimi-k2.5-thinking have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Style Apr 11 $568 −$219 -39%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Apr 10 $3 +$14 +425%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 10 $6,057 −$6,003 -99%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%? Apr 10 $237 −$235 -99%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $6,665 −$630 -10%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 09 $4,756 +$235 +5%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 08 $6,037 +$295 +5%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026? Apr 08 $9,700 −$9,639 -99%
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June Apr 08 $452 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Apr 08 $1,490 +$7 +0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 08 $96 +$5 +5%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Apr 07 $311 −$161 -52%
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more? Apr 06 $4,588 +$326 +7%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $3,270 +$172 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $150,485 −$31,059 -21%
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (St Apr 05 $223 −$223 -100%
Will gemini-3-flash have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Style Con Apr 05 $223 −$223 -100%
Will gemini-2.5-pro have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Style Con Apr 05 $223 −$223 -100%
Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contrac Apr 04 $32 +$18 +56%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? Apr 04 $3,578 +$75 +2%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Apr 03 $4,750 −$4,750 -100%
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Apr 03 $726 +$6 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Apr 03 $4,650 −$4,650 -100%
Will grok-4.20-beta1 have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 03 $124 −$124 -100%
Will kimi-k2.5-thinking have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 03 $124 −$124 -100%
Will qwen3.5-max-preview have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Styl Apr 03 $223 −$223 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$15,833
world 35% +$11,887
other 4% −$2,309
politics 4% −$57,900
culture 0% +$215
tech 0% −$1,771
finance 0% +$15
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 52d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4,350 59d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $5 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $1 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $3 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $11 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 62d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $45 62d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $12 63d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $8 63d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $8 63d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $5 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +177.8% +151.3% 100% 100% +151.3%
≤30d 19 +44.4% +30.7% 37% 26% -55.8%
≤90d 147 +13.2% +2.5% 51% 20% -15.8%
all 147 +13.2% +2.5% 51% 20% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 20% -15.8%
10% -7.4% 17% -23.8%
15% ← realistic here -16.3% 14% -31.2%
20% -24.5% 10% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92,748.13 · official $92,738.27 (match) · 3500 history records