Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5ecd…c49f other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-1%) realized −$109 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1,577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$142
14 days−$39
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$146
sports 7% −$141
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -15.3% -23.3% 46% 46% -18.7%
≤30d 16 -24.8% -31.9% 44% 38% -11.8%
≤90d 22 -38.0% -43.9% 36% 32% -12.9%
all 49 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 39% -13.0%
10% -24.5% 39% -21.3%
15% -31.8% 39% -28.9%
20% -38.5% 31% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$67 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$1,577
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions13
Markets (closed)49 / 62
History coverage183d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $295 $358 +$63 (+21%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 75¢ $308 $346 +$37 (+12%)
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $207 $215 +$8 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $116 −$54 (-32%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+11%)
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 44¢ $99 $65 −$34 (-34%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 29¢ $21 $34 +$13 (+61%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 56¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $52 +$105 +203%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$70 +69%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$41 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$95 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$106 +103%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $204 +$82 +40%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $5,415 +$104 +2%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $51 +$31 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 28? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 28? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Jan 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Jan 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jan 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-01-24? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jan 26 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $5 +$14 +257%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $41 +$61 +150%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-04? Jan 05 $64 +$27 +43%
Will Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jan 05 $25 +$71 +285%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $75 +$92 +122%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $108 +$56 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $129 +$119 +92%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $69 +$331 +478%
Blue Jackets vs. Kings Dec 23 $50 +$72 +144%
Canucks vs. Flyers Dec 23 $55 +$47 +85%
Will AZ win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Canadiens vs. Penguins Dec 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Rangers vs. Predators Dec 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Dec 22 $100 +$69 +70%
Will PSV win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $14 +$12 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8PM ET Dec 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $103 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $103 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $26 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $52 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $102 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $204 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $204 7d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $3,295 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $57 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $120 9d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 10d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 10d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $51 10d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $51 10d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $101 10d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 10d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,038 10d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 8¢ $32 20d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $103 20d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $465 21d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,297 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,576.96 · official $1,565.68 (match) · 174 history records