Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ecc…030a crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-7%) realized −$19 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$19
sports 44% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.6% -30.0% 40% 40% -23.2%
≤30d 5 -22.6% -30.0% 40% 40% -23.2%
≤90d 5 -22.6% -30.0% 40% 40% -23.2%
all 5 -22.6% -30.0% 40% 40% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 40% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 0% -30.6%
15% -42.8% 0% -37.3%
20% -48.4% 0% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) France 37¢ 42¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$3 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Algeria BUY 13¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.01 · official $104.01 · 35 history records