Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ec0…634b world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$6
other 25% +$15
politics 13% +$2
sports 12% −$12
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
weather 1% −$14
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 20 -5.7% -14.6% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 64 -3.6% -12.8% 34% 0% -9.7%
all 80 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.9%
10% -21.0% 4% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 4% -26.4%
20% -35.6% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage522d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 −$3 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$2 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $133 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $1 $0 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $37 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $38 −$5 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $52 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 11 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $91 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $83 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $20 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $18 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $40 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $7 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $29 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $14 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $13 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $33 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $5 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.13 · official $35.72 (match) · 320 history records