Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5ebf…638f crypto 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate84%81W / 16L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$13
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$23
sports 14% +$10
other 6% −$4
world 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 37 -1.6% -10.9% 89% 22% -4.6%
≤90d 97 +4.1% -5.8% 84% 54% -3.6%
all 97 +4.1% -5.8% 84% 54% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 54% -3.6%
10% -14.8% 37% -12.8%
15% -23.0% 14% -21.2%
20% -30.6% 5% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses81 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage57d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $22 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $12 +$2 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $2 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $3 $0 +7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 26 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23? May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 23 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 23 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will CSyD Macará vs. Club Alianza Atlético end in a draw? May 22 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 22 $1 $0 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $2 $0 +13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $1 $0 +10%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $1 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 21 $2 $0 +21%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $1 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 20 $1 $0 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +18%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 $0 +20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $1 $0 +32%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 97¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $27 14h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 95¢ $25 26h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $25 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $23 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $22 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $20 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $18 8d
XRP Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 93¢ $17 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 95¢ $16 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 92¢ $15 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 90¢ $13 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 88¢ $12 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? BUY No 87¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 95¢ $9 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 93¢ $3 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 93¢ $1 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? BUY No 94¢ $6 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 25? BUY No 90¢ $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23? BUY No 94¢ $2 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 28d
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Washington Nationals 79¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No $0 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? BUY No 91¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records