Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5eb7…5923 crypto 703 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$455 (+2%) realized +$464 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate72%497W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$690
world 16% +$982
finance 10% +$366
other 4% +$2
sports 3% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +67.4% +51.4% 67% 33% +23.5%
≤30d 4 +50.7% +36.3% 75% 25% +15.4%
≤90d 17 +22.2% +10.5% 71% 47% +0.7%
all 693 -8.3% -17.0% 72% 18% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 18% -6.1%
10% -25.0% 13% -15.1%
15% -32.2% 8% -23.3%
20% -38.9% 5% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$464
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses497 / 196
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions6
Markets (closed)693 / 703
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $173 +$4 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$86 +226%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 −$5 -26%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 27 $77 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $207 +$38 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $103 +$8 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 12 $31 +$5 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 12 $43 +$36 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 12 $210 +$116 +55%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 07 $408 +$43 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 07 $298 −$48 -16%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 01 $31 +$60 +194%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 31 $102 +$44 +43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 26 $55 −$24 -44%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $1,104 +$49 +4%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $12 −$4 -35%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 23 $57 −$43 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 16 $304 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 12 $559 +$85 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Ve BUY 5¢ $15 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Ur BUY 15¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $173 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 33¢ $20 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 2¢ $14 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 24d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 24d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 24d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 24d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $77 24d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $77 33d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 35d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 68¢ $245 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 55¢ $207 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $51 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.02 · official $211.02 · 3500 history records