Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5E 0x5eb4…6f5c crypto 33 markets active 5d ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+7%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%28W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$128
other 6% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 29 +1.3% -8.4% 97% 0% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -2.9%
10% -17.1% 0% -12.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -20.7%
20% -32.5% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×45.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1273.64 per $1 lost it wins $1273.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses28 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage460d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Mar 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 09 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 12 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in January? Feb 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 26 $14 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jan 26 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 25 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 11 $34 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Sep 14 $1,184 +$124 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 20 $19 +$1 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 12 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $3,500.00 again by March 31? Apr 16 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $14 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $13 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 27d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 104d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 104d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 104d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 104d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 128d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 128d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $15 128d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 146d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 146d
Will Solana reach $170 in January? BUY No 99¢ $14 146d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 146d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $20 146d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 174d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $20 174d
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 174d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $34 208d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $25 208d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 99¢ $58 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.09 · official $60.09 (match) · 65 history records